12m Probability
31%
Randomized, quadruple-blind Phase III parallel pilot (n=20) evaluating MDMA-assisted Massed Prolonged Exposure (one MDMA medicine session plus 12 90-minute PE sessions) in US veterans with PTSD; doses randomized (exact doses not disclosed).
This randomized pilot evaluates the VASDHS-adapted Emory MDMA-PE protocol in veterans with PTSD using a parallel design with two active dose arms; one MDMA medicine session is paired with a massed PE course of twelve 90-minute sessions spanning roughly three weeks.
Primary outcome is change in clinician-rated PTSD symptoms (CAPS-5); secondary assessments include safety, tolerability, acceptability, SUDS during imaginal exposure, and remote CAPS-5 follow-ups at 1 week, 2 months, and 4 months. An optional fMRI substudy will be offered pre- and post-treatment.
Preparatory and integration sessions are included (one preparatory session prior to MDMA and at least one integration session after); optional additional MDMA/integration sessions may be offered after unblinding at 2-month follow-up.
Prolonged Exposure with one MDMA medicine session (Dose A); 12 non-medicine PE sessions plus one MDMA session.
Exact MDMA dose not disclosed; one medicine session.
Prolonged Exposure: 12 90-minute PE sessions (initial two sessions at first treatment visit; third and fourth during MDMA session; remaining daily or every other day).
Prolonged Exposure with one MDMA medicine session (Dose B); 12 non-medicine PE sessions plus one MDMA session.
Exact MDMA dose not disclosed; one medicine session.
Prolonged Exposure: 12 90-minute PE sessions (initial two sessions at first treatment visit; third and fourth during MDMA session; remaining daily or every other day).
MDMA-assisted Massed Prolonged Exposure for PTSD is covered as a Phase 3 catalyst. The trial still appears operational, so the model treats enrollment progress, primary completion timing, and any interim sponsor update as the core near-term catalysts. The current score is 39/100, with no linked result disclosure attached yet.
12m Probability
31%
24m Probability
43%
Likely Timeline
Q1 2026
Confidence
35%
What changed
Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality
Interactive model of how key assumptions can shift the 12-month probability.
Base 12m Probability
31%
Adjusted 12m Probability
31%
Delta: 9pp | timeline shift 0 months
Delta: 10pp | timeline shift -3 months
Delta: -4pp | timeline shift 1 months
Delta: 1pp | timeline shift 0 months
Delta: 5pp | timeline shift -1 months
Heuristic forecast generated from registry phase/status, target enrollment, completion timing, linked evidence, and sponsor footprint. Treat as a structured monitoring baseline until a reviewed narrative is published.
Narrative is currently in needs-review state and may still be under review.