Covered Catalysts
57
Grouped programmes + standalone trials
Late-stage catalyst intelligence for psychedelic trials
A research desk for the trials most likely to matter next. Blossom combines registry data, linked evidence, sponsor context, and model-generated probabilities so you can see which psychedelic studies deserve closer attention.
Coverage rule
The screener focuses on high-signal catalysts: grouped pivotal programmes, active Phase 3 studies, and active Phase 2 trials with meaningful scale or a linked developer. Terminated, withdrawn, and small historical studies stay out of this view.
Model behavior
The model separates three things: whether a trial belongs in coverage, how soon a meaningful catalyst may arrive, and which assumptions would move the probability most.
Forecast Analytics
Pro Locked
Average 12m Probability
47%
Across included catalysts
Near Readout (<=24m)
22
Expected completion window
Phase 3 Share
74%
Coverage composition
P75 Confidence
63%
Upper-quartile confidence
Average Catalyst Score
58.6
Primary ranking metric
Updated Last 7 Days
57
Change-aware refresh cadence
Deeper Forecast Analytics
Unlock the full analytics stack: confidence spread, update velocity, and rank-shift diagnostics.
Regulatory signal
FDA Breakthrough Therapy markers
Some covered catalysts carry compound- or programme-level FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation. The badge is a context marker, not an approval forecast; probabilities still come from phase, timing, evidence, and sponsor execution.
6
BTD catalysts
6
Grouped programmes
Phase 3 Catalyst Screener
Highest-priority late-stage programmes, ranked by near-term catalyst impact.
| Rank | Trial / programme | Developer | Catalyst | 12m | Next Milestone | Last Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | FDA Breakthrough Psilocybin for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) (uAspire) | Usona Institute | 80.0 | 64% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality |
| #2 | Programmephase 3FDA Breakthrough CYB003 MDD Phase 3 programme | Cybin | 80.0 | 64% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality |
| #3 | UMC Utrecht | 80.0 | 64% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #4 | UMC Utrecht | 80.0 | 64% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #5 | University of Exeter | 80.0 | 64% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #6 | Programmephase 3FDA Breakthrough MM120 GAD Phase 3 programme | Definium Therapeutics | 80.0 | 64% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. |
| #7 | NYU Langone Health | 80.0 | 64% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #8 | FDA Breakthrough A Phase 3 Trial of MM120 for Major Depressive Disorder (Emerge) | Definium Therapeutics | 80.0 | 64% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. |
| #9 | The University of Melbourne | 80.0 | 64% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #10 | Orygen | 80.0 | 64% | Primary completion/readout update | Forecast updated: coverageStatus, coverageType, ranking.catalystScore | |
| #11 | Programmephase 3FDA Breakthrough COMP360 TRD Phase 3 programme | COMPASS Pathways | 78.0 | 62% | Publication, label, or regulatory follow-up | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality |
| #12 | Programmephase 3 Esketamine ASPIRE MDD suicidality Phase 3 programmeA Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intranasal Esketamine in Addition to Comprehensive Standard of Care for the Rapid Reduction of the Symptoms of Major Depressive Disorder, Including Suicidal Ideation, in Adult Participants Assessed to be at Imminent Risk for Suicide (ASPIRE II),A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intranasal Esketamine in Addition to Comprehensive Standard of Care for the Rapid Reduction of the Symptoms of Major Depressive Disorder, Including Suicidal Ideation, in Adult Participants Assessed to be at Imminent Risk for Suicide (ASPIRE I) | Janssen Research & Development | 78.0 | 62% | Publication, label, or regulatory follow-up | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality |
| #13 | Programmephase 3 MDMA-assisted therapy PTSD Phase 3 programme | Resilient Pharmaceuticals | 78.0 | 62% | Publication, label, or regulatory follow-up | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality |
| #14 | Bruyère Health Research Institute. | 70.0 | 56% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #15 | Programmephase 3 Esketamine TRANSFORM TRD Phase 3 programmeA Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Fixed Doses of Intranasal Esketamine Plus an Oral Antidepressant in Adult Participants With Treatment-resistant Depression (TRANSFORM-1),A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Flexible Doses of Intranasal Esketamine Plus an Oral Antidepressant in Adult Participants With Treatment-resistant Depression (TRANSFORM-2),A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Intranasal Esketamine Plus an Oral Antidepressant in Elderly Participants With Treatment-resistant Depression (TRANSFORM-3) | Janssen Research & Development | 68.0 | 54% | Topline results or regulatory update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality |
| #16 | Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris | 66.0 | 53% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #17 | University of Amsterdam | 66.0 | 53% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #18 | Massachusetts General Hospital | 66.0 | 53% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #19 | Medical University of Gdansk | 66.0 | 53% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #20 | Maimonides Medical Center | 66.0 | 53% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #21 | University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill | 66.0 | 53% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #22 | National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) | 66.0 | 53% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #23 | Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre | 66.0 | 53% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #24 | Federal University of São Paulo (UNIFESP) | 66.0 | 53% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #25 | The Cleveland Clinic | 53.0 | 42% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #26 | Orygen | 53.0 | 42% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #27 | University Medical Centre Groningen | 53.0 | 42% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #28 | Monarch Mental Health Group | 53.0 | 42% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #29 | University of British Columbia | 53.0 | 42% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #30 | University of Amsterdam | 53.0 | 42% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #31 | Nationwide Children's Hospital | 53.0 | 42% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #32 | Yale University | 53.0 | 42% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #33 | Janssen Research & Development | 53.0 | 42% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #34 | VA Office of Research and Development | 53.0 | 42% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #35 | Stanford University | 39.0 | 31% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #36 | University Health Network, Toronto | 39.0 | 31% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #37 | National Health and Medical Research Council | 39.0 | 31% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #38 | Universita Vita-Salute San Raffaele | 39.0 | 31% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #39 | The University of Texas Health Science Center at Tyler | 39.0 | 31% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #40 | University of Otago | 39.0 | 31% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #41 | Healing Breakthrough | 39.0 | 31% | Enrollment, completion, or interim readout update | Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality | |
| #42 | Herzog Hospital | 29.0 | 23% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. |
Curated Phase 2 Screener
Included when explicit gate criteria pass (enrollment, sponsor maturity, regulatory/efficacy signal, or near-readout).
| Rank | Trial / programme | Developer | Catalyst | 12m | Next Milestone | Last Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #43 | Beckley Psytech | 81.0 | 65% | Primary completion/readout update | Forecast updated: coverageStatus, coverageType, ranking.catalystScore | |
| #44 | University of Sydney | 70.0 | 56% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #45 | Karolinska Institutet | 58.0 | 46% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #46 | Thompson Institute, University of the Sunshine Coast | 58.0 | 46% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #47 | Woke Pharmaceuticals | 43.0 | 34% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #48 | Academic Medical Center (Amsterdam UMC) | 43.0 | 34% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #49 | University of Basel | 43.0 | 34% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #50 | University of Zurich | 43.0 | 34% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #51 | University Medical Center Groningen | 43.0 | 34% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #52 | University Health Network, Toronto | 43.0 | 34% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #53 | COMPASS Pathways | 43.0 | 34% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #54 | Novo Nordisk Foundation | 43.0 | 34% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #55 | Johns Hopkins University | 43.0 | 34% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #56 | University of Sydney | 43.0 | 34% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. | |
| #57 | Eleusis | 43.0 | 34% | Primary completion/readout update | Initial forecast record created. |
Model behavior
Explore the forecast model
Blossom starts with a structured AI forecast, then lets you test how evidence, execution, timeline, and design assumptions move the selected catalyst. This is a lightweight scenario model on saved forecast fields, not a full Monte Carlo engine yet.
1
Research inputs
Trial registry data, linked papers, sponsor context, source evidence, and recent changes.
2
Coverage gate
All Phase 3 trials plus Phase 2 trials that pass explicit late-stage criteria.
3
Structured forecast
Probability, timeline, confidence, catalyst score, and driver deltas are generated into a stable schema.
4
Scenario model
This panel stress-tests assumptions against the saved forecast; Pro unlocks full controls.
How the model is assembled
Coverage
Phase + gate criteria
Decides whether a trial enters the forecast set.
Catalyst score
Timing + scale + evidence + sponsor
Ranks trials before any narrative interpretation.
Scenario output
Saved forecast + assumption deltas
Shows how selected assumptions move the visible probability curve.
Selected catalyst
Psilocybin for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) (uAspire)
Psilocybin for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) (uAspire) is covered as a Phase 3 catalyst. The trial still appears operational, so the model treats enrollment progress, primary completion timing, and any interim sponsor update as the core near-term catalysts. The current score is 80/100, with no linked result disclosure attached yet.
Saved forecast
64%
12-month probability
Scenario output
Base case shifts the 12-month estimate by +2pp.
66%
adjusted 12m
12-month66%
24-month78%
Eventual85%
Uncertainty band51% - 82%
Assumptions
Scenario presets are visible to everyone. Pro unlocks manual calibration.
0
How much the available efficacy and safety evidence supports a positive catalyst.
0
Operational credibility, financing capacity, and ability to run the next milestone.
0
Whether the expected readout window is pulling the catalyst closer or pushing it out.
0
How much randomization, control strategy, endpoint clarity, and sample size support confidence.
Manual Model Calibration
Unlock assumption sliders, full driver calibration, analyst notes, and reviewed narrative interpretation.
Driver impact map
Each driver shows the stored directional effect that the scenario model uses as its baseline.
2/5 visible
Development stage and registry status
+9pp / 0mpositive
Phase 3 inclusion raises priority, but status still controls whether the next catalyst is operational or interpretive.
Readout and disclosure window
+10pp / -3mpositive
Primary completion timing is the strongest timing anchor when no reviewed narrative is available.
Full Driver Map
Unlock 3 additional driver rows and manual calibration detail.
Forecast change playback
Apr 23, 2026
Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality
Apr 23, 2026
Forecast updated: structuredForecast.quality
Apr 23, 2026
Initial forecast record created.
Catalyst Sensitivity Lab
Stress-test directional assumptions for the selected trial and see how the 12-month probability shifts.
Base 12m Probability
64%
Likely timeline: Q2 2026
Adjusted 12m Probability
64%
Based on live driver bias controls below
Forecast Confidence
72%
Model-generated; narrative remains review-gated
Development stage and registry status
positiveDelta: 9pp 12m probability, 0 months
Full Sensitivity Controls
Unlock 4 additional driver controls, analyst notes, and deeper scenario calibration.